Over 1.1m Poles register to vote outside place of residence as “election tourists” hope to swing election

Over 1.1 million Poles have registered to vote in this Sunday’s parliamentary elections outside their usual place of residence. That is four times more than at the last such elections in 2019 and comes amid reports that so-called “election tourists” are choosing to cast their vote where they think it will carry most weight.

The figure, reported by the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna daily based on data from the digital affairs ministry, is accurate up to Wednesday afternoon. However, it may have risen further by Thursday’s end-of-day deadline to register to vote at a different polling station.

In addition to the 1.1 million who have registered to vote away from their usual place of residence, a further 294,000 have applied for a certificate allowing them to vote at any polling station. That figure was almost double the number in 2019.

DGP:
Już 1,1 mln osób złożyło wniosek o dopisanie do innej komisji⚠️
W 2019 roku było to 242 tys

Zostały 2 dni na dopisanie się do innej komisji jeśli nie możemy być w dniu wyborów tam gdzie jesteśmy zameldowani

Miejsce głosowania zmienisz przez neta👇 https://t.co/FtlCaPRj2O pic.twitter.com/ptwF9uc9Ao

— Rafał Mundry (@RafalMundry) October 11, 2023

At least part of this increase has been attributed to “election tourism”, whereby voters from large cities travel to smaller towns hoping to increase the weight of their vote in the close-run elections.

That is because, note experts, more voters are needed to elect a single member of parliament in large cities like Warsaw or Kraków than in smaller towns.

In addition, the currently ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) has more support in smaller towns. In 2019, it won between 48% and 58% of the vote in towns of up to 20,000 inhabitants, while in large cities it won just 30%.

The government has announced it will give 250,000 zloty to rural housewives’ associations, brass bands and local sports clubs in every small district where turnout is above 60% at this Sunday’s elections

The ruling party has stronger support in such areas https://t.co/XPc6rayW3C

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) October 13, 2023

In the vote for the Sejm – the more powerful lower house of parliament – Poland is divided into 41 districts. Each one elects between seven and 20 MPs, depending on its population.

One year before the elections, the National Electoral Commission (PKW) is bound by law to propose to the government changes to the distribution of seats between districts to reflect population flows.

However, as no government since 2011 has adopted the PKW’s proposed changes, disparities between districts have widened with the migration of people from rural to urban areas.

Based on its population, Warsaw should have 11 more MPs than it currently has, notes Business Insider Polska journalist Rafał Hirsch.

Wg danych o liczbie uprawnionych do głosowania w poszczególnych okręgach, z Warszawy powinno być wybieranych 31 posłów, a nie 20. https://t.co/tFPw7llk5C pic.twitter.com/7Tw8WJcR3n

— rafalhirsch (@rafalhirsch) October 12, 2023

The weight of votes cast in Warsaw is further reduced because all overseas votes are counted towards the city’s total. This year a record 608,000 people have registered to vote abroad.

This means that in Warsaw, 98,000 residents choose one MP whereas in nearby Łódź and its surrounding towns, one MP is chosen by just under 70,000 residents, according to information shared by a website promoting election tourism, Głosuj Tam (Vote There).

According to political scientist Jarosław Flis, the large number of people registered to vote outside their place of residence suggests that, nationwide, the votes of such “tourists” could determine up to seven seats in the 460-seat Sejm.

That could prove crucial given that polls currently suggest a very close race, with uncertainty as to whether either the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party or the mainstream opposition can win a majority.

In terms of seats, this would mean prety much a dead heat, with much depending on how much regional strengths have changed in the last few years (and in particular how competitive Trzecia Droga is against PiS). pic.twitter.com/oOhLguXX9Y

— Ben Stanley (@BDStanley) October 13, 2023

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Main image credit:Grzegorz Skowronek / Agencja Wyborcza.pl