“Poles will be wealthier than Brits in five years” pledges Tusk, hailing benefits of EU membership

Prime Minister Donald Tusk has pledged that “Poles will be wealthier than Brits” within five years, as he lauded the benefits of EU membership on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s accession to the bloc.

“As we celebrate 20 years in the EU, a fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that income per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025,” wrote Tusk on social media.

“And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be wealthier than the British,” he declared. “It’s better to be in the EU!”

Kiedy my świętujemy 20 lat w Unii, w Wielkiej Brytanii toczy się ostra debata wywołana prognozą Banku Światowego, zgodnie z którą dochód na głowę będzie w 2025 wyższy w Polsce niż w UK. I to obiecuję: na 25 rocznicę Polacy będą zamożniejsi od Brytyjczyków. Lepiej być w Unii!

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) May 1, 2024

Tusk’s remarks appear to refer to a speech by British opposition leader Keir Starmer last year in which he warned that, under the current Conservative government, the UK is on a “trajectory that will soon see Britain overtaken by Poland”.

Starmer’s Labour Party supported that claim with analysis by the World Bank indicating that per capita GDP in the UK would be $600 lower than in Poland by 2030 (not 2025, as claimed by Tusk in his remarks this week).

Some other similar estimates have put the date at which Poland will overtake the UK in terms of GDP per capita even later, at some stage further into the 2030s.

Striking chart about whether Poland might overtake the UK in @SAshworthHayes’ piece about the importance of growth and starting to build and invest again https://t.co/9q5lW3Kim7 pic.twitter.com/LQt9KU43lw

— John Myers (@johnrmyers) July 17, 2022

However, many experts have noted that such figures are, first of all, adjusted for purchasing power parity, meaning GDP per capita is expressed not in absolute terms but in relation to the cost of goods in respective countries.

More problematically, the estimates rely on the assumption that average annual economic growth in previous years will continue into the future.

“You cannot just extrapolate the past in this way,” wrote economist Julian Jessop in response to Tusk’s claim. “Poland’s relatively rapid growth in the last two decades was flattered by the low starting point for GDP: poorer economies usually grow more quickly as they catch up, but then slow as they mature.”

Will Poles 'soon be richer than Brits?’

A few people have asked me about this bold claim from #Poland’s Donald Tusk, which rehashes an old soundbite from the UK Labour Party.

In short, no… (🧵)
https://t.co/o5S7mX4SPG

— Julian Jessop FRSA (@julianHjessop) May 2, 2024

Poland’s economic growth in recent years has, nevertheless, been rapid.

A study published last month by Pekao, a major Polish bank, found that the country has been the biggest economic beneficiary of EU membership among the eastern member states that have joined the bloc since 2004. Over that period, its economy has also grown the third fastest among all 27 countries in the union.

Analysis by the Polish Economic Institute, also published last month, found that Poles are today on average 40% richer than they would have been if the country had not joined the EU,

In 2022, Poland overtook Spain on the EU’s household wealth index. A year earlier, it also surpassed Portugal in terms of GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms.

Poland has overtaken Spain and is almost equal with Ireland in an index used by the EU to assess the material wealth of households in member states https://t.co/QkQ15B5O64

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) July 11, 2023

Tusk – who was president of the European Council during much of the Brexit process – has a long history of clashing with British Conservative leaders over EU membership.

In 2019, he said that there is a “special place in hell…for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely”.

The previous year, he shared a photograph of him offering a cake to then-British Prime Minister Theresa May with the caption: “Sorry, no cherries.” That was a reference to criticism in Brussels that the Uk was seeking to “cherry-pick” access to the EU’s single market after Brexit.

Poles are on average 40% richer than they would have been if the country had not joined the EU, finds the Polish Economic Institute.

That was the second highest figure among the eastern member states that joined the bloc in 2004, notes @PIE_NET_PL https://t.co/3PiJozm8ql

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) April 17, 2024

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Main image credit: KPRM (under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 PL)

Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.