Exit poll shows win for Tusk’s KO and far-right taking third place in Poland’s EU elections
The exit poll published by Ipsos at the close of voting in Sunday’s European elections in Poland shows the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) of Prime Minister Donald Tusk taking first place, with 38.2% of the vote.
It is followed by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), Poland’s main opposition, on 33.9%. The far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) is in third on 11.9%, in what one of its leaders celebrated as the greatest ever result for their political environment.
They are followed by KO’s two junior governing coalition partners: the centre-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga) on 8.2% and The Left (Lewica) on 6.6%.
Exit poll from the European elections in Poland:
KO – 38.2%
PiS – 33.9%
Confederation – 11.9%
Third Way – 8.2%
The Left – 6.6%@Ipsos via @tvn24: https://t.co/1oeTHqZQL1 pic.twitter.com/nknJlSpmac
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) June 9, 2024
If confirmed in official results – which are expected on Monday – the outcome would represent the first time PiS has failed to finish first in an election in Poland since 2014. It or its candidate has come top in eight elections – parliamentary, presidential, local and European – during that time.
However, at last October’s parliamentary elections, although it finished as the largest single party, with 35.4% of the vote, it lost power to Tusk’s coalition.
According to today’s exit poll, KO will take 21 of Poland’s seats in the European Parliament, with 19 for PiS, six for Confederation, four for Third Way and three for The Left.
Turnout, at estimated 39.7%, was six percentage points lower than at the last European elections in 2019 and is the lowest in any election since 2014.
The exit poll results in Poland suggest KO has won 21 seats in the European Parliament, ahead of PiS (19), Confederation (6), Third Way (4) and The Left (3) pic.twitter.com/2zQICSFeCV
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) June 9, 2024
“For exactly ten years we’ve been waiting for this first place on the podium,” said Tusk at a post-election rally in Warsaw. “I am so happy. We have the right to feel joy and emotion.”
“Even though our voters might want more, and faster, today I feel great satisfaction that we have not wasted these difficult months,” added the prime minister, whose government took office in December last year.
“I have such a deep feeling that we cannot stop in this march for good. I promise you we won’t stop,” he added, quoted by news website Onet. “Poland has shown that democracy triumphs here. Thanks to your steadfast attitude, Poland is a leader of the EU.”
Wystąpienie Premiera @donaldtusk podczas wieczoru wyborczego 🇵🇱✌🏻🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/q9ZhfmrF3U
— PlatformaObywatelska (@Platforma_org) June 9, 2024
Meanwhile, PiS chairman Jarosław Kaczyński admitted that “this result is a great challenge for us” and that his party must “draw conclusions from what can be seen on the [electoral] maps shown today, what can be seen in various other elements of the results”.
However, he added that he remained confidence that “the path to victory is open” in both next year’s presidential elections and the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027.
#CzasDecyzji | – Ten wynik to jest dla nas wielkie zadanie – mówił prezes PiS Jarosław Kaczyński podczas wieczoru wyborczego.
🔗https://t.co/DtoaCKRrtg pic.twitter.com/7txf1p2YPY
— tvn24 (@tvn24) June 9, 2024
Confederation, meanwhile, appears to have seen a surge in support, with its vote share significantly up from the 7% it got in at both the October parliamentary elections and the local elections in April this year, according to today’s exit poll.
“We achieved by far the highest result in the history of our political environment,” said one of the groups leaders, Sławomir Mentzen. “We have become the third political force in Poland!”
According to the exit poll, Confederation was the most popular choice among the youngest group of voters, winning 31% of votes among those aged 18 to 29.
The far-right Confederation was the most popular choice among young voters in Poland, according to the exit poll.
It won 31% of votes among those aged 18 to 29 pic.twitter.com/adywk1RFGs
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) June 9, 2024
However, while the result marked a positive outcome for KO, it was disappointing for its coalition partners. If the exit poll is accurate, Third Way saw a sharp decline in support compared to the more than 14% it received at both October’s parliamentary elections and April’s local elections.
“We congratulate our colleagues from KO on the spectacular result and victory in the European elections,” said one of Third Way’s leaders, Szymon Hołownia. “We’ll keep our fingers crossed that you will make good use of it.”
One of the leaders of The Left, Robert Biedroń, likewise said that he “congratulates the winners, KO, on a very good result, which, taken together with the results of Third Way and The Left, confirms the victory of the democratic majority in Poland”.
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Main image credit: Dawid Zuchowicz / Agencja Wyborcza.pl
Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.
