Tuesday briefing: What Poland’s rightwing parties losing control of government means for Europe | Europe

Dzień dobry. “It is the end of evil times,” Donald Tusk, the former prime minister of Poland and leader of the country’s main opposition party, declared as polls indicated a clear majority for a centre-left coalition in what has been billed as Poland’s most important general election since the fall of communism in 1989. “We did it, for real. Poland won, democracy won.”

Well, technically, Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) party didn’t win. But it doesn’t matter, as the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and its potential rightwing partner do not appear to have won enough votes to extend nine years in power.

“I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. It’s the end of the evil times, it’s the end of the PiS rule. We made it,” Tusk told jubilant supporters at a victory party in Warsaw’s ethnography museum. “This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland.”

After the headlines we’ll take a deep dive into Poland’s fractious politics, and what the result means for the people of Poland and the country’s place in the world. Our guide is the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent Shaun Walker, who was at Tusk’s party and has been taking the temperature on the streets of Warsaw.

Five big stories

Brussels shooting| Brussels is on its highest level of security alert after two Swedes were shot dead in the centre of the city by a gunman who federal prosecutors said claimed to be inspired by Islamic State.

Israel-Hamas war | President Joe Biden will travel to Israel for talks with prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday as concerns grow that the Israel-Hamas war could spiral into a regional conflict.

Conservatives | The Conservative MP Peter Bone repeatedly hit and verbally abused a member of his staff, often asked him for massages and on one occasion put his bare genitals in the other man’s face, according to a report by a House of Commons regulator.

UK news | Counter-terrorism police are leading an investigation into the suspected murder of a man and the assault of another after an incident in Hartlepool in the early hours of Sunday.

Economy | The Bank of England has more “work to do” to ensure inflation is brought back under control, the chief economist Huw Pill has said. Raising the possibility of an increase in borrowing costs from the Bank, Pill said the fact that the headline measure of the cost of living was falling was not enough to claim victory.

In depth: ‘For a long time, Poland has been the problem child for the European Union’

Polish Deputy prime minister and leader of the PiS (Law and Justice) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski arrives to cast his vote at a polling station in Warsaw, Poland on 15 October 2023. Photograph: Janek Skarżyński/AFP/Getty Images

Tusk, 66, and PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, 74, were once on the same side. In 1989 they were both part of the Solidarity protest movement that led to the elections and the fall of communism.

Lech Wałęsa, leader of the Solidarity movement and Poland’s first elected president, recently described them as “my children” but with very different outlooks. “They wanted to be politicians but had a totally different understanding of what being a politician means,” Wałęsa told the Financial Times. “I would say Tusk is convinced that democracy is a good system, but for Kaczyński democracy is a possible obstacle to fulfilling his will.”

They co-founded rival political parties in 2001. Kaczyński set up PiS with his twin brother Lech, while Tusk formed centre-right Civic Platform. Animosity between the two has been rife for decades, but reached fever pitch in the run up to Sunday’s election.

Kaczyński described Tusk, who was Poland’s prime minister between 2007 and 2014 and president of the European Council from 2014-2019, as “pure evil … [The] enemy of the nation … A traitor who must be morally exterminated.” He claims Tusk wants to hand over more power to the EU and is in the pocket of Germany.

Tusk has also described Kaczyński as evil and an existential threat to Poland, claiming he is eroding the independence of the judiciary, plans to pull Poland out of the EU, and is a threat to the country’s very democracy.

What are the results?

With a turnout of nearly 73% – an 11 percentage points increase on the 2019 election and the highest for a national election since 1989 – the votes are still being counted.

But, Shaun says, two exit polls give a very clear indication of the likely result. PiS is estimated to have won 36.7%, which would give Kaczyński’s party 198 seats in the 460-seat parliament. Even with support of the far-right Confederation party (bizarrely, it encouraged people to eat dogs during the campaign) – which is expected to win just 6.4% of the vote compared to a predicted 9% – PiS would fail to meet the 231 need for a majority.

Tusk’s KO party is on track for 30%. But two minority parties are expected to join him in forming a grand coalition: centre-right Third Way is expected to collect 14.4% of the vote, and the leftwing Lewica 8.3%. The polls suggest that together they could command 248 out of 460 seats.

“Even so, Kaczyński and PiS will probably get a go at forming a government,” Shaun says, “as the president traditionally invites the largest party to try to form a coalition first.” Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, was elected as the PiS-backed candidate in the 2015 presidential election.

Paulina Hening-Kloska of Third Way (Trzecia Droga in Polish) called on Duda to “save us two months of havoc and respect the voters’ decision thus making it possible for us to create a new, democratic government”.

Why this election really matters

Supporters of the main opposition party Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) wave Polish flags a rally in Pruszkow, Poland on 13 October 2023. Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images

“Both sides painted this election as existentially important for the future of the nation,” Shaun says. “And, judging from the turnout, the electorate got the message.”

So many people turned out to vote that long queues formed at polling stations. “In the city of Wrocław so many people were in the queue at 9pm when polls were due to close that it stayed open until 3am,” Shaun says.

Long queues were also reported at Polish embassies overseas after a record 608,000 citizens abroad registered to vote – more than double the number in the 2019 election. So many people registered to vote in Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Sweden and Luxembourg that the foreign ministry suggested they register in different neighbouring countries – potentially difficult for Poles in Ireland.

A new rule also limits vote counting in foreign locations to 24 hours, and if the count is not finished by the deadline all the ballots in that precinct are scrapped. The polls show most overseas voters back the opposition.

Ania Dzialowy queued for two hours to vote in London, and said everyone in the line was “very excited to vote in the most important election of our time”. “This election is not only about the future of democracy, but also women’s rights, the future of Poland in the EU and Nato,” she says. “I voted for KO because they have a good programme for a peaceful future, the depoliticisation of state TV, better healthcare, and education for young people as they are our future.”

Shaun says the turnout was very high as the opposition had “really mobilised people”. “The opposition parties got a lot of young people involved, while PiS threw everything at turning out its supporters in the countryside and among the older generation.”

As well as the general election, PiS added four referendum questions to the ballot that aligned with its key policies. Adding these allowed the government to sidestep campaign spending limits, policed by the election committee.

One question asked: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”. All referendums are likely to be declared void as the required 50% did not vote. KO had suggested people not vote in them.

The government also threw picnic parties for farmers, and has been widely accused of using state-owned TV and newspapers to push its agenda and criticise the opposition. State oil and gas company PKN Orlen directly owns 20 out of 24 Polish regional daily newspapers as well as 120 weekly magazines. Critics point out the similarity to Russia, where Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled gas company, owns media companies used to attack the opposition and support the government.

What does the likely result mean for Poland’s place in Europe?

“It’s a tilt back towards the EU, and civility,” says Shaun. “The Polish government has clashed with Brussels over rule of law concerns, leading tens of billions of euros of European funds earmarked for Poland to be frozen.” Tusk has made releasing this money a political priority.

“For a long time, Poland has been the problem child for the European Union,” Shaun says. “Now there will be a huge amount of good will in Brussels towards a new government, if and when it’s formed.”

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What else we’ve been reading

Emily Grace, who lives with PMDD. Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The Guardian

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Daniel Dylan Wray’s interview with Graeme Armstrong, a former member of a young gang in Scotland, explores the pull of gang life on to children as young as 14 years old and what happens when there is no safety net in some of the most deprived areas of the country. Nimo

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For the Atlantic (£), Jacob Stern examines how novelty bets took off and became a (not necessarily legal) mainstay in the betting industry. Nimo

Sport

A minute’s silence during the Euro qualifier match between Belgium and Sweden at the King Baudouin Stadium. Photograph: Soccrates Images/Getty Images

Football | Belgium’s Euro 2024 qualifier against Sweden was suspended at half-time and subsequently abandoned after the fatal shooting of two Swedes in Brussels on Monday evening. Both sets of players told Uefa they did not want to play the second half. The score was level at 1-1. Viktor Gyökeres had given Sweden a 15th-minute lead before Romelu Lukaku equalised.

Cricket | Adam Zampa and Josh Inglis have breathed life into Australia’s ailing World Cup campaign by starring roles with the ball and the bat respectively in a five-wicket defeat of Sri Lanka.

Football | Beth Mead says she is “ready to compete” for England again after making her return for Arsenal at the weekend after an 11-month injury layoff. The forward came on in the 88th minute against Aston Villa and contributed towards her side coming from 1-0 behind to secure a dramatic 2-1 win.

The front pages

Photograph: Guardian

On the Guardian’s front page, “Gaza humanitarian crisis grows as US bid to ease blockade falters”. Underneath, a picture of palestinians at the Rafah border crossing with Egypt as they wait to flee the Gaza Strip. A similar headline in the Financial Times with “US-led push to open Gaza crossing falters as Biden weighs Israel visit”. The US president has announced he will head there on Wednesday. In the i, it’s “Israel prepares to fight Hamas in Gaza tunnels”, while the Mirror says “Invaders will face tunnel bloodbath”. A more domestic line for the Telegraph with “British girls missing after Hamas terror attack” and in the Times, “Teenage sisters among Britons missing in Gaza”. The Mail looks at events closer to home with “Violent prisoners to be let out early” in relation to the problem of overcrowded prisons. And in the Sun, a story on past challenges with Wayne Rooney’s marriage. The headline: “What Coleen told Wayne after his drinking antics with other women … I just can’t carry on”.

Today in Focus

Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader Humza Yousaf discusses the Independence Strategy Resolution during the second session at the SNP annual conference Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Is the SNP’s independence dream fading?

It’s been a torrid past few months for the Scottish National party (SNP). Its former leader, Nicola Sturgeon, was arrested then released without charge by police investigating allegations of financial misconduct. The party’s new leader, Humza Yousaf, has been trying to steady the ship amid fractious policy disputes and more recently the huge defeat to Labour at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection. Just before the SNP’s annual conference began, one of its MPs defected to the Conservative party.

Libby Brooks has been with the party faithful as the SNP gathers in Aberdeen, where the centrepiece of the event has been setting a new course for independence. She tells Nosheen Iqbal that there is an understanding among members that the party is losing support in the country at large even if sentiment towards independence is hovering steadily around the 50% mark in many polls.

Cartoon of the day | Billy B

Illustration: LUKE SMITH AKA BILLY B 231016 OPINION v2/The Guardian

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Lisa Bowman’s hamster, Lucy Fur. Photograph: Supplied image

“Broke, depressed and partying too hard” is what Lisa Bowman says life felt like … until she invested in a pet hamster. Nothing seemed to be going right for Lisa, so she made a decision with the support of her housemate to invest in a pet . She decided on getting a pet hamster as it seemed “the most financially viable option”.

Lucy Fur was introduced into Lisa’s life and changed it for the better: the furry friend helped Lisa through a housebound period when she broke her leg, kept her company through lonely spells and most importantly helped Lisa feel something again as she found herself on antidepressants that “stunted” her emotions.

“I will always be grateful for her existence,” Lisa says. “She may not have cured my depression, but she was a wonderful distraction from the darkness.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

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