Almost half of government voters disappointed with failure to liberalise abortion law

Almost half of those who voted for Poland’s ruling coalition are disappointed that it has not yet followed through on its promise to liberalise the country’s abortion law. Meanwhile, over half of young Poles – who voted in record numbers last year – say they are disappointed.

The findings come from a new poll conducted by Ipsos for news outlets OKO.press and TOK FM. They asked respondents how they feel about the fact that, since forming a government in December, the ruling coalition has not changed the abortion law.

Among those who identified as voters for the three groups that make up the coalition, 44% said they are “disappointed because there was supposed to be the right to abortion [on demand] up to the 12th week [of pregnancy] but there [still] is not”.

However, 37% were less critical, saying that “the ruling coalition is working as best as it can under existing conditions”.

Ponad 1/3 badanych jest rozczarowana tempem zmian w prawie aborcyjnym. Zawiedzeni są młodzi, szczególnie kobiety. Rząd nie będzie zadowolony, gdy spojrzy na odpowiedzi elektoratu Koalicji 15 października #SONDAŻ @OKO.press @Radio_TOK_FM @m_chrzczonowiczhttps://t.co/M3p19mn7um

— OKO.press (@oko_press) June 19, 2024

Liberalisation of the abortion law has been delayed in particular by disagreement within the ruling coalition. Two of its members – the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) and The Left (Lewica) – want to introduce abortion on demand up to 12 weeks.

However, the centre-right Third Way (Trzecia Droga) prefers instead a less dramatic liberalisation that would allow abortion in only three circumstances: if pregnancy threatens the mother’s life or health, if it results from a criminal act (such as rape), or if a birth defect is diagnosed in the foetus.

Opinion polls show that a large majority of the Polish public want the current near-total ban on abortion to be ended and a more liberal system to be introduced. However, there they are divided over whether they favour the introduction of abortion on demand or a “compromise” of the type proposed by Third Way.

One member of Poland’s likely new ruling coalition, The Left, says polls show a majority in favour of abortion on demand.

In fact, they do not. And this issue is likely to be one of the hardest for the incoming government to resolve, writes @danieltilles1 https://t.co/4Nze9wwEC3

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) November 20, 2023

In April, in a show of unity, the government’s majority in parliament gave initial approval to three abortion bills proposed respectively by each member of the coalition.

However, each bill is now being discussed by a specially formed parliamentary committee, a process that is likely to take at least weeks.

Even if any of them are eventually passed by parliament, they face the possibility of a veto by conservative President Andrzej Duda, who remains in office until mid-2025.

Parliament has voted for bills aimed at ending Poland’s near-total abortion ban to proceed to for further legislative work.

However, they still face a number of hurdles, including differences within the ruling coalition over how far to liberalise the law https://t.co/IIcMnvk0jZ

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) April 12, 2024

Ipsos’s polling shows the highest level of disappointment with the ruling coalition over the issue of abortion among Poles aged 18-29 (51% of whom are disappointed) and among women aged 18-39 (57%). Such young Poles voted in record numbers at the last parliamentary elections.

A large majority of The Left’s voters say they are disappointed (79%) with lower figures for KO (40%) and Third Way (35%).

Meanwhile, among supporters of the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, the main opposition, a majority say either that “there is no need to change the current [abortion] law” (47%) or that “the issue of abortion is overblown and not that important” (25%).

During PiS’s time in power, Poland’s abortion law, already one of the strictest in Europe, was further tightened with the introduction of the near-total ban on terminating pregnancies. However, senior PiS figures have recently indicated they may be willing to support a softening of the law.

Conservative opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński has indicated he could support softening Poland’s near-total abortion ban, which was introduced under the rule of his PiS party.

But he warns this could only happen by changing the constitution https://t.co/LtHr6OiAwE

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) April 14, 2024

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Main image credit: Kuba Atys / Agencja Wyborcza.pl

Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including Foreign Policy, POLITICO Europe, EUobserver and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.